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Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?

Q: Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?

Aktuelle Wahrscheinlichkeiten: Yes (8%), No (92%). This market will resolve to "Yes" if North Korea commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the South Korea by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by South Korea, North Korea, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Volume: $60.9K

Liquidity: $15.4K

Ends: Dec 31, 2026

YES

7.5%

probability

NO

92.5%

probability

Price History

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Order Book

Bids (Buy)

<1%50540

<1%675

<1%45

1%10

1%6

Asks (Sell)

8205>99%

5>99%

2000>99%

14>99%

1099%

Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if North Korea commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the South Korea by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by South Korea, North Korea, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

How Prediction Markets Work

1

Choose your position: Buy "YES" if you think it will happen, or "NO" if you don't.

2

Set your stake: Trade with virtual currency. The price reflects market probability.

3

Wait for the outcome: If you're right, you receive $1 per share. If wrong, you lose your stake.

Trade

Amount ($)

$

This is a simulation. No real money involved.