Buy YES if your forecast is above the market price, or NO if your forecast is below it. FantasyPoly records the trade with play money so you can measure your forecasting skill without deposits, withdrawals, or real-money risk.
Use play money. No deposits, withdrawals, or real-money risk.
This is a simulation. No real-money trading, withdrawals, or payouts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify. For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon. Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process. Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered. Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
Choose your position: Buy "YES" if you think it will happen, or "NO" if you don't.
Set your stake: Trade with virtual currency. The price reflects market probability.
Wait for the outcome: Correct positions receive 1 virtual credit per share. Incorrect positions lose their virtual stake.
Use play money. No deposits, withdrawals, or real-money risk.
This is a simulation. No real-money trading, withdrawals, or payouts.