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USDC depeg by December 31?

Q: USDC depeg by December 31?

Current market-implied probabilities: Yes (2%), No (98%). This market will resolve to “Yes” immediately if all Pyth 1-minute candles for USDC-USD for any 24-hour period are below 98 cents, for candles between 27 Oct ’25 15:00 and 31 Dec ’26 23:59 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Below 98 cents means all candles in the period have a final “High” price below 0.98000 (i.e., 0.97999 or lower). A 24-hour period of USDC below 98 cents that starts on the last day in 2026 will count. The resolution source for this market is TradingView, specifically the USDC-USD “High” prices currently available at https://tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=PYTH%3AUSDCUSD with “1m” and “Candles” selected on the top bar. To see the “High” prices, mouse over particular candles and look at the value after “H” at the top of the chart. Please note that this market is about the price according to Pyth USDC-USD. If Pyth stops having the necessary USDC information to resolve this market, a consensus of credible sources for whether USDC was below 98 cents for 24 hours or more may be used to resolve this market.

Volume: $264.3K

Liquidity: $12.8K

Ends: Jan 1, 2027

YES

2.1%

probability

97.9%

probability

Price History

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Order Book

Bids (Buy)

<1%125470

<1%4713

<1%267

<1%111

1%600

Asks (Sell)

5700>99%

79>99%

2598%

2095%

1195%

Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” immediately if all Pyth 1-minute candles for USDC-USD for any 24-hour period are below 98 cents, for candles between 27 Oct ’25 15:00 and 31 Dec ’26 23:59 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Below 98 cents means all candles in the period have a final “High” price below 0.98000 (i.e., 0.97999 or lower). A 24-hour period of USDC below 98 cents that starts on the last day in 2026 will count. The resolution source for this market is TradingView, specifically the USDC-USD “High” prices currently available at https://tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=PYTH%3AUSDCUSD with “1m” and “Candles” selected on the top bar. To see the “High” prices, mouse over particular candles and look at the value after “H” at the top of the chart. Please note that this market is about the price according to Pyth USDC-USD. If Pyth stops having the necessary USDC information to resolve this market, a consensus of credible sources for whether USDC was below 98 cents for 24 hours or more may be used to resolve this market.

How Prediction Markets Work

Choose your position: Buy "YES" if you think it will happen, or "NO" if you don't.

Set your stake: Trade with virtual currency. The price reflects market probability.

Wait for the outcome: If you're right, you receive $1 per share. If wrong, you lose your stake.